Early 2015 Politics election musings

After a few months of election season and the first Republican debate, I think we are in for some fascinating months of political theater. Here are a few of my observations:

  • The popularity of Donald Trump seems to reflect the American voters giving a firm middle finger to the political leadership and media pundits.
  • The rise of Bernie Sanders popularity shows a significant rejection of HRC and the DNC leadership by the Democratic rank and file.
  • The rise of Trump, Fiorina, Carson and Cruz shows a significant rejection of Jeb Bush and the RNC leadership by the Republican rank and file.
  • The public support for Sanders and Trump/Fiorina/Carson demonstrates a clear rejection of another Bush/Clinton president.
  • HRC is on a bad track. Her favorability and trustworthiness continue to decline. The whole world–including every democrat–knows that she is a political weasel. Some are willing to accept her because party affiliation is stronger than all else. That is simply a terrible reason to vote for someone.
  • Bush and Walker are also on bad tracks as Republican establishment candidates. Neither can defeat Rubio (on likability), Cruz (conservative articulation), Huckabee (wit and savvy) or Fiorina (substance and tenacity).
  • With just a little tweaking, Trump could really run away with this race. He could discontinue all the defensive crap and personal attacks, put a few policies in place and emphasize that he can do 5-10 things much better than his competition:
  1. Surround himself with the best people, not political friends
  2. Transform the federal govt toward a meritocracy where people can be fired (it is his trademark)
  3. Starve ISIS and IRAN economically
  4. Execute urban renewal projects and incentives that grow inner city jobs
  5. Simplify the tax code so that it does not favor the rich and puts H&R block out of business
  6. Negotiate like a ballsy leader rather than a flaccid apologist
  7. Build a wall at the border with well-controlled attractive doors
  8. Shrink the federal government’s role in education, EPA, and IRS. Shrink the fat in Defense, intelligence, social security and medicare.
  9. Fix the VA and make it a model for public health care
  10. Repeal Obamacare and replace with an effective alternative based on market competition
  • Carly Fiorina has been very rich with substance and good ideas.¬†One of her main points was that the places where income inequality is worst is in the states and cities where liberal policies are strongest (NY, CA, MA, DC, WA, SF, Chicago, Detroit) and the policies of Obama have made this situation far worse in the last 8 years. That is a compelling fact. Not sure about the causality, but a great debate and a tough position for Dems to address.
  • Rand Paul remains the most principled candidate and his principles for small government and liberty are attractive.

It is going to be fun to see how this unfolds.

 

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