Posts Tagged ‘transforming’

Transforming to Economic Governance

Monday, January 28th, 2013

Highly complex systems like societies, economies, and evolution are non-deterministic because they represent unpredictable life forms interacting with each other in chaotic ways. Weather forecasting and earthquake prediction are similarly complex and non-deterministic. These large-scale systems have emergent behaviors where we can create probabilistic models that predict the range of outcomes and likelihood of outcomes, but never the exact outcome. Why? Because there is uncertainty inherent in the interacting elements (i.e., humans with free will, random or unpredictable acts of nature, mutations, innovations, etc.). This does not mean that these predictive models are not useful. It simply means that we must reason about things differently and understand both the distribution of outcomes and the uncertainty inherent in that distribution to make better decisions.

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