Posts Tagged ‘bayesian reasoning’

More Honest predictions

Monday, March 18th, 2013

While quoting the most likely outcome, i.e., the mean, or median or mode of a probability distribution, may be a rough prediction, a more honest representation of the prediction would quantify the full range of possible outcomes. For example, the most likely outcome of 150 days is an accurate portrayal of the expected target date in the two upper graphics of the figure in my last post. However, by expressing how sure we are of that guess—a coin flip in one case and a confident commitment in the other—we are much more honest and transparent in communicating that information to others.


Bayesian reasoning

Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

Setting any project’s expected delivery date or its planned resources is a kind of prediction. Many project managers have been faced with the dilemma that it is impossible to predict the future, but that is our job. The best way to improve predictions is to apply what is called Bayesian reasoning.


Economic Governance of Software Delivery

Monday, February 11th, 2013

My Blog posts for the next couple months will be extracted from a draft white paper I am writing with Murray Cantor on development analytics. Here is the abstract.