While quoting the most likely outcome, i.e., the mean, or median or mode of a probability distribution, may be a rough prediction, a more honest representation of the prediction would quantify the full range of possible outcomes. For example, the most likely outcome of 150 days is an accurate portrayal of the expected target date in the two upper graphics of the figure in my last post. However, by expressing how sure we are of that guess—a coin flip in one case and a confident commitment in the other—we are much more honest and transparent in communicating that information to others.
Posts Tagged ‘bayesian reasoning’
Setting any project’s expected delivery date or its planned resources is a kind of prediction. Many project managers have been faced with the dilemma that it is impossible to predict the future, but that is our job. The best way to improve predictions is to apply what is called Bayesian reasoning.